The 2025/26 soybean harvest could exceed 183 million tons.

Partial results from the Rally da Safra field assessments indicate an increase in the estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 crop year. The projection has risen to 183.1 million tons, a volume 6.41 TP4T higher than that recorded in the previous season. This figure represents an increase of 850,000 tons compared to the initial estimate released in January. The estimated average productivity is 62.5 sacks per hectare.

The planted area remains estimated at 48.8 million hectares, representing a growth of 2.11 TP4T compared to the previous harvest. Since the beginning of the technical expedition in January, the teams have traveled more than 40,000 kilometers across 11 states and the Federal District: Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, Rondônia, Tocantins, Pará, Maranhão, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, and Santa Catarina, and have evaluated more than 1,200 crops.

Photo: Press release/Aprosoja-MT

Despite weather challenges in some regions, there has been an improvement in production estimates in most states. The soybean harvest reached 441 TP4T of the planted area in the country by February 26, down from 521 TP4T recorded in the same period last year.

Nine states have a productive potential exceeding 62 sacks per hectare: Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, Paraná, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rondônia, and Bahia.

In Mato Grosso, average productivity is estimated at 66 sacks per hectare, close to the previous harvest's record of 66.5 sacks. In Goiás, the estimate is 67 sacks per hectare, although the harvest is delayed and approximately 60% of the area remains in the field. Mato Grosso do Sul has a projected productivity of 62.5 sacks per hectare.

In Paraná, a new record is expected, with an average of 67 sacks per hectare. In São Paulo, productivity could reach 63.5 sacks, while Minas Gerais has an estimated average of 66.5 sacks per hectare. Rondônia has an estimate of 62.5 sacks, and Bahia, 68 sacks per hectare.

Photo: Jaelson Lucas/AEN

Among the states with estimated productivity between 55 and 62 sacks per hectare are Tocantins, with an average of 59.5 sacks, and Maranhão, Piauí, and Pará, with an estimate of 60 sacks per hectare each.

Rio Grande do Sul is the only state with confirmed losses so far. Irregular rainfall between January and February, especially in the southern and Missões regions, compromised production potential, with estimated losses of 2 million tons.

Field assessments will continue in the coming weeks. Teams still need to conduct surveys in Maranhão, Piauí, Bahia, and Rio Grande do Sul, a step considered crucial for consolidating the final estimates of the Brazilian soybean crop.