EN 
PT_BR 
The new monthly supply and demand bulletin from the USDA (Department of Agriculture) surprised with some of its numbers reported this Friday (11) and soybean prices closed the day with more than 30 points down in the main maturities. November closed at US$ 12.99 and May/27 – reference for the Brazilian crop – being quoted at US$ 13.27 per bushel. During the week, May even exceeded US$ 13.50 per bushel.
The report came in bearish for soybeans and surprised by showing higher productivity for the 2026/27 US crop, resulting in even higher production – now estimated at just over 123 million tons, while traders expected downward corrections. And so, even with a slight increase in exports and a timid cut in ending stocks, soybean futures succumbed and led the losses on the CBOT.
In the day's balance, adding to the scenario of greater risk aversion, all markets were down. Wheat prices also fell by more than 2%, while corn closed the day down more than 0.3%, after testing losses of more than 1% throughout the day.
“The market was very stretched, it was overbought,” says Gilberto Leal, head of commodities at Granel Corretora. The expert also points out that next week, the commodities market will receive the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates in the US, which should also make trading more intense, with aggressive fluctuations.
Adding to the picture are the midterm elections in the United States, also shaking up the markets after President Donald Trump announced a promise of $5,000 to every adult in the country if the Republican Party wins the election.
In this environment, Friday saw an aggressive and widespread decline for agricultural, energy, and metal commodities, with markets giving back much of what they had gained in recent days. Oil lost almost 31% of its value, and although Brent crude remained above US$100.00 per barrel on the London Stock Exchange, the correction movement reached other assets. In New York, for example, sugar ended the day down more than 31%, cotton down more than 21%, and coffee down more than 1.31%.
Also in Chicago, soybean oil futures plummeted by more than 3% and soybean meal futures ended Friday with a decline of almost 1%.
REFLECTIONS IN BRAZIL
Another factor putting pressure on commodities – especially some agricultural commodities – was the renewed strength of the dollar against the real. The US currency returned to R$ 5.12 and contributed to the pressure in Chicago. The dollar index was also testing small gains and contributing to the decline.
Nevertheless, prices in Brazil failed to hold and followed the declines in Chicago quite significantly. According to Gilberto Leal's survey, prices in Mato Grosso, depending on the trading location, fell between R$ 3.00 and R$ 5.00 per sack.
