ApexBrasil identifies 543 export opportunities to the European market under the Mercosur-EU agreement.

The Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil) released this week a detailed survey which projects a promising export scenario for Brazil should the Mercosur-European Union Agreement, formalized in 2025, come into effect after ratification in the parliaments of the countries involved.

According to the study, Brazilian sectors could immediately access a potential market of US$43.9 billion in annual imports from the European Union, with 543 export opportunities with immediate tariff reduction, eliminating currently existing customs barriers.

A study by ApexBrasil's Market Intelligence area mapped the areas of trade liberalization, focusing on the demands of the European bloc, composed of 27 countries and one of the largest global consumer markets. The analysis shows that these opportunities are distributed across all major regions of the continent, with a greater concentration in Western Europe and a significant presence in the Southern, Eastern, and Northern markets.

The data collection shows that Brazil, a traditional supplier of agricultural commodities and raw materials, still has a modest share in European purchases of these specific items. Of the 543 opportunities identified, Brazilian exports represented approximately US$1.1 billion in recent years, which corresponds to just over 2.61 of the total imported by the bloc. Most of the trade fronts mapped today involve products with low or no export volume currently, but with recognized competitiveness abroad.

Products with potential for immediate expansion include transportation machinery and equipment, various manufactured goods, chemicals, raw materials, and food, among other segments that go beyond the traditional Brazilian export agenda.

ApexBrasil reports that the agreement will have a particular impact on sectors that currently face high tariff barriers, and that the elimination or reduction of tariffs in these segments could boost the diversification of national exports.

The survey comes at a time when the Mercosur-EU Agreement, negotiated for over 25 years, was formally signed in January 2025, creating an integrated market with approximately 720 million inhabitants and an aggregate GDP of approximately US$22 trillion. Even before implementation, the expectation is that the elimination or reduction of tariffs will generate more predictable and competitive conditions for Brazilian companies and attract new investments, with direct effects on internationalization strategies and productive value chains.

In addition to identifying market opportunities, ApexBrasil has intensified initiatives to prepare Brazilian companies for the new commercial reality, in coordination with the federal government, Congress, and international partners. While the ratification process continues in the European Parliament and the national congresses of Mercosur, the agency has expanded its communication and prospecting efforts with European private sectors to reinforce Brazil's image as a competitive and reliable supplier of goods and services.

ApexBrasil emphasizes that, at this moment, the political maneuvering surrounding ratification and the market response will be crucial in consolidating the identified potential, and that the eventual entry into force of the agreement should significantly transform the profile of Brazilian exports to the European Union.

Opportunities identified

Of the total opportunities identified, 244 are classified as opening opportunities, cases in which Brazil does not yet have a significant share of European Union imports, but has proven international competitiveness in exporting these products. According to ApexBrasil, this is a clear indication that the agreement can contribute to the diversification of Brazil's export portfolio, reducing the concentration on a few traditional items.

Among the segments analyzed, raw materials, such as seeds for sowing and soybean meal, currently account for 2.7% of Brazilian participation in EU imports. In the group of animal and vegetable oils, particularly crude corn oil, Brazil's share is 4.5%, a percentage considered low given the country's productive capacity and competitiveness in these markets.

Agriculture with a combination of tools

In the agricultural sector, the Mercosur-European Union Agreement establishes a combined model of immediate tariff elimination, gradual reduction, and the creation of specific quotas for sensitive products. Among the main items covered are beef, poultry and pork, sugar, ethanol, rice, corn, honey, cheeses and cachaça, in addition to the total elimination of tariffs for fruits such as avocado, lemon, lime, melon, watermelon, table grapes and apple.

In the case of beef, Brazil exported US$11.6 billion to the world in 2024, while the European Union imported US$2.4 billion of the product. Brazilian sales to the bloc totaled US$461.2 million, with a 19.1% share and a volume of 59,000 tons. Before the agreement, the Hilton Quota destined for Brazil, of 10,000 tons, was subject to a tariff of 20%, while exports outside the quota faced a combined tariff that reached the equivalent of 41.8%. With the entry into force of the agreement, the Hilton Quota tariff will be immediately zeroed, and, over time, a new quota of 99,000 tons in carcass equivalent will be implemented, with linear growth over five years and an in-quota tariff of 7.5%.

For pork, the potential for expansion is even more significant. In 2024, Brazil exported US$2.7 billion to the world, while the European Union imported US$79.7 million, with only US$1.1 million originating from Brazil, corresponding to a 1.41% share and a volume of 342 tons. Before the agreement, EU tariffs ranged from €46.7 to €86.9 per 100 kilograms. The treaty foresees the creation of a quota of 25,000 tons, with linear growth over five years and an in-quota tariff of €83 per ton, significantly increasing the competitiveness of Brazilian pork.

In the poultry meat sector, Brazil maintains a more consolidated position. Brazilian exports to the world totaled US$9.1 billion in 2024, while EU imports reached US$815.1 million. Brazil accounted for US$197.3 million, with a 24.21% share and a volume of 72,000 tons. Before the agreement, tariffs ranged from €18.7 to €102.4 per 100 kilograms. Under the new arrangement, a quota of 180,000 tons by carcass weight will be created, divided equally between bone-in and boneless products, with a linear increase over five years and a zero intra-quota tariff.

According to ApexBrasil's assessment, the numbers demonstrate that the agreement has the potential to reposition Brazilian agribusiness in the European market, increasing volumes, reducing access costs, and strengthening predictability for investments and strategic decisions. The Agency highlights that the challenge, following ratification, will be to transform the technical mapping into concrete results, preparing companies to meet the sanitary, environmental, and logistical requirements of the European market, while simultaneously expanding Brazil's presence in higher value-added segments.