Gradual drop in temperatures marks transition to dry season in Brazil

The final stretch of May continues to be marked by weather uncertainties for parts of Brazil's grain-producing regions. According to data from Itaú BBA Agro Consulting, weather maps indicate significant variability in rainfall in the central region of the country, while the highest precipitation volumes are expected to be concentrated in the South and Southeast regions.

Photo: IAT

In the producing areas of Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Minas Gerais, the situation demands attention. The second corn crop still depends on regular rainfall to ensure grain filling, and if the drier pattern persists, the risk of reduced productivity remains.

In addition to rainfall, temperatures are also expected to change over the next few weeks. The trend is for a gradual drop in temperatures in the country's main agricultural regions, following the advance of autumn and the approach of the dry season.

In the Midwest, temperatures should remain within normal ranges, with milder nights, but without cold weather capable of limiting crop development. In the South and Southeast regions, however, the temperature drop should be more pronounced, with greater temperature variations and the possibility of cold mornings, especially in Paraná, which increases the need for caution regarding later-sown crops.

Photo: Antonio Carlos Mafalda

In the United States, weather conditions remain favorable for the grain harvest. The forecast indicates sufficient rainfall to support planting progress in the Midwest, a region already experiencing a rapid pace of sowing.

According to Itaú BBA Agro Consulting, this scenario reduces the risks of water deficit in the initial stages of corn and soybean development and reinforces the expectation of good crop establishment in the United States.

Another factor being monitored by the market is the potential formation of the El Niño phenomenon. Data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates a probability of approximately 61% of transition from neutral conditions to El Niño between May and July, with the possibility of persistence until the end of 2026.

The trend indicates a moderate to strong intensity event, which is historically associated with increased rainfall in the southern region of Brazil and reduced rainfall in the northern and northeastern regions.